But your real question is not whether it sells well today. It is this: in three years, when you need the money, will anyone buy this home from you, and at what price.
No brochure answers that. This article does, by counting every unit in the sales inventory of 128 projects on sale, then comparing provinces.
The gap between provinces is huge
In total 17,677 units are tracked, and 26.7% are sold. That number is only a baseline for comparison. Split it by province and the story appears:
| Province | Projects | Units | Sold | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hung Yen | 8 | 1,541 | 897 | 58.2% |
| Long An | 1 | 102 | 43 | 42.2% |
| Ho Chi Minh City | 14 | 2,642 | 841 | 31.8% |
| Hai Phong | 6 | 1,143 | 330 | 28.9% |
| Da Nang | 13 | 1,486 | 407 | 27.4% |
| Nghe An | 8 | 2,928 | 711 | 24.3% |
| Hanoi | 51 | 4,564 | 1,079 | 23.6% |
| Khanh Hoa (Nha Trang) | 5 | 803 | 166 | 20.7% |
| Quang Ninh (Ha Long) | 9 | 2,158 | 322 | 14.9% |
Hung Yen sells almost four times faster than Quang Ninh on the same measure. That gap is big enough that you have to ask why. You cannot treat the two as equal just because both are satellite towns.
A low price is not what decides
There is a clear contrast in the data. A project east of Hanoi, around VND 3.8 billion per home, with over 600 units listed, has sold less than 5%. Meanwhile some other zones priced at VND 5 to 6 billion are 100% sold.
The difference is whether people already live there. Where there are residents, schools and shops, buyers see real life and pay for it. Where the land has only just been levelled, buyers wait even if it is cheaper, and that wait is measured in years.
When you compare two options, do not put two prices side by side. Put each price next to the share already sold in that same zone.
The uncomfortable part about large stock
Large unsold stock does not mean a bad project. It means buyers have the bargaining power, and developers holding a lot of stock usually improve incentives over time.
It also means something people rarely say: in three years, when you want to sell, you will be competing with the developer itself, and the developer can wait far longer than you.
In zones that are over 80% sold, the other way round, the best units are usually gone. In the data there is a project where the median price of the unsold units is 6.6% higher per square metre than the sold ones. That is not a price rise. It means the cheap part has run out.
What to do
If you are buying to live in: favour places where people already live, even if the price per square metre is 15% to 20% higher. You are buying a life you can have now, not a drawing.
If you are buying to hold value: choose zones that are 50% to 80% sold. Below 50% the market is still hesitating. Above 80% you are buying what others passed over.
If you are eyeing a place with large stock: do not rush. Incentives there will almost certainly improve over the next two to three quarters. If you still want to buy, negotiate like someone with the upper hand, because you have it.
On Hung Yen, the fastest seller on the table: notably, there was no significant infrastructure news there over the past two weeks. Homes are selling on genuine demand to live, not on a planning wave. That kind of demand is more durable, but do not expect prices to jump.
When I would change my mind
- If a province at the bottom of the table starts selling more than 3% of its inventory per month for three months in a row, the market there has come back and the advice to wait no longer holds.
- If Hung Yen's sold share falls below 40% because new supply arrives, real demand needs to be checked again.
- If the price of the unsold units in a project drops below the sold ones, the developer is usually starting real price cuts, and patient buyers get rewarded.
All three are counted again every morning.
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